The CNN report cited by Arab Times detailed how Gen. Dan Caine raised his concerns directly with officials including CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance, warning that additional strikes could yield only marginal results while heightening the chance of Iranian retaliation across the Middle East. Caine and other military leaders have assessed that airpower by itself would probably fail to compel Tehran to meet US demands even though President Donald Trump has firmly opposed committing American ground troops to the conflict. Those discussions reflect growing internal caution as the administration weighs its next steps in a war that has already strained resources and alliances throughout the Gulf.
According to the same account, Caine and his colleagues expressed particular skepticism toward a proposed escalation in late July, citing the danger that Iran would strike American allies and energy facilities in response. Trump postponed the operation after Gulf partners cautioned that it might provoke precisely such attacks, the report added, underscoring the limits of unilateral military pressure. This episode illustrated the complex interplay between operational planning in Washington and diplomatic warnings from regional capitals that depend on stable oil flows.
The CNN report further noted rising US concern over dwindling weapons inventories, especially air-defense interceptors and precision-guided munitions, that could constrain the Pentagon’s ability to maintain a long conflict. Such shortages have become more acute as the fighting has continued, prompting senior officers to question the sustainability of intensified operations. Officials are therefore examining scenarios that might allow Trump to claim a measurable success while still leaving room for eventual negotiations.
Despite his cautions, Caine has told the president that American forces remain capable of inflicting substantial damage on Iranian targets if escalation is ordered, the report stated. Administration discussions now center on a possible diplomatic arrangement that Trump could present as a victory, with one option being an accord that reopens the Strait of Hormuz to safe maritime traffic. This pathway would address a central economic vulnerability while preserving leverage for future talks on broader security issues.
A July 13 assessment from the Council on Foreign Relations concluded that the US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed in June had collapsed, leaving Washington without straightforward military solutions short of a ground invasion that Trump has repeatedly ruled out. The Soufan Center’s intelligence brief from the same period described the overall situation as a prolonged «no war, no peace» stalemate in which neither side can fully deter the other yet both seek to avoid all-out combat. Public opinion data referenced in the Council report indicated that 60 percent of Americans consider the conflict not worth the costs, adding domestic pressure on the administration to find an exit.
US Energy Information Administration figures show that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 20.9 million barrels per day in the first half of 2025, equivalent to roughly 20 percent of global petroleum liquids consumption and more than one-quarter of seaborne traded oil. EIA reporting from the first quarter of 2026 recorded a nearly 30 percent drop in those volumes to 14.6 million barrels per day after the outbreak of major hostilities, with crude oil accounting for about three-quarters of the reduced total. The chokepoint’s centrality to Asian markets, which receive more than 80 percent of the transiting crude according to the same data, explains why reopening the strait has emerged as a priority in current diplomatic explorations.
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